COVID Update: Wednesday, May 12

Former Councilmember John Duran has been doing daily COVID updates on his Facebook page since March 2020. Many members of the community have found them helpful. They are republished here with his permission.

LA County Cases1,246,821(up from 1,246,619)
LA County Deaths24,421(up from 24,416)
LA Positivity Rate.4%(unchanged at .4%)
LA Hospitalizations216(up from 218)

The New York Times has a story this morning that we avoided a fourth surge in this country.  Months ago, there was great fear about a fourth wave hitting us in the Spring.   It did not happen.

Cases and hospitalizations rose only modestly in late March and early April – and now they are falling again.   Deaths have not risen in months.    So what happened?

A large number of Americans have built up natural immunity by catching and surviving COVID.  The vaccination program has expanded rapidly.   And even as some American were behaving recklesslessly, most wore masks indoors and outdoors to stop the spread of disease.  

But despite all this good news, COVID is not yet over.   There are 2. big COVID problems – both involving vaccinations.   First, one in 3 Americans remain skeptical about vaccines.   13% said they would definitely not get the shot.  6% said they would get the shot if their employers required it.  And 15% said they were waiting to see how the vaccines affected others.    This wariness explains why the US continues to trail behind Britain and Israel in vaccination rates where deaths have dropped even more sharply despite their huge outbreaks early this year.  

In the USA, more than 600 people continue to die from COVID daily.   The same politically conservative communities that refuse to wear masks – are also the same communities refusing vaccines.    So we are unlikely to hit zero as the virus continues to thin the herd in these areas.    Sad.   This is what happens when science gets polluted. by politics.  

The second big vaccination issue is what is happening outside of the USA. Vaccination rates remain extremely low in most of the world, especially in poorer countries. India’s recent death toll has been horrible.   And cases are rising in Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia.  Brazil and much of South America are struggling also.   Roughly 90% of the world has NOT received a vaccination yet.  We have a long way to go to beat COVID around the globe.  


Orange County may soon join Los Angeles County as the second southern CA county to reach the yellow tier.   OC’s rate of new COVID Cases dropped to 1.8 per day per 100,000 – meaning it can drop to the most lenient category, as soon as next week, if the trend holds.

Mono and San Mateo counties both recently moved from orange to yellow.  And Madera county moved from red to orange.    The other counties that may move from orange to yellow next week include Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Tuolumne and Amador.    The counties that are currently in yellow include LA county, San Francisco, San Mateo, Mendocino, Lassen, Mono, Trinity, Sierra and Alpine.   All of these yellow counties account for about 30% of our State’s population.   

Counties must have an adjusted daily rate of less than 2 new cases per 100,000 residents for two weeks in a row to qualify for the yellow tier.   Here is where all the counties in Southern California now stand:

LA County    1.4

Orange County 1.8

Ventura County 2.3

San Bernardino County 2.5

Riverside County 2.7

Santa Barbara County 3.5

San Diego County 3.7

Imperial County 5.2

As you can see – LA and the OC are rocking it.   The others lag behind but hopefully the rest of So CAL joins us soon.   

77 degrees in LA today.   Sun will break through.  But we are having another drought.   Time for shorter showers again!

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